A few thoughts about Kyle Tucker and Cubs payroll
The Debate Over Kyle Tucker's Future with the Cubs
I initially planned to write an article on whether the Cubs should re-sign Kyle Tucker, but Josh beat me to it on After Dark. Feel free to join the discussion there! I wanted to share my thoughts on Tucker and the Cubs' overall payroll strategy.
During his season-ending press conference, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer discussed their 2026 budget, stating, 'I haven't had those conversations yet. We'll sit down in the next two to three weeks to discuss it. I'm confident we'll have enough money to field a good team, but I don't know the specifics yet.'
Some commenters suggested Hoyer was being evasive. I disagree. While the Cubs have a multi-year financial plan, it's unlikely Hoyer and Executive Chairman Tom Ricketts have finalized the 2026 payroll details. Jon Greenberg's article in The Athletic highlights this point.
According to Spotrac, the Cubs' 2025 payroll was around $211 million, ranking 10th in baseball. This is substantial, but the Cubs should aim for a top-five position, as they were before the 2016 World Series. The Dodgers and New York teams benefit from significant cash flow from their regional sports networks, a luxury the Cubs lack.
Cubs President of Business Operations Crane Kenney's statement about their own RSN, Marquee Sports Network, generating 'wheelbarrows of cash' for baseball operations, didn't materialize. The Cubs' 2025 payroll drop below the luxury tax threshold was partly due to last year's deadline moves, which displeased ownership. This year, they aimed to stay under the threshold.
Now, the luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244 million. The Cubs should aim to spend at least this amount and exceed it if the right opportunity arises.
The Kyle Tucker Question
Most would agree that Kyle Tucker is a prime candidate for a long-term deal. However, I'm hesitant for a few reasons.
Tucker's recent injuries have impacted his performance. Despite a solid 2025 season, his 4.5 bWAR, .841 OPS, and 22 home runs in 136 games don't justify a $400 million contract. While he's an excellent player, his defensive skills and quiet personality raise concerns.
Tucker's defense isn't impressive, and his injury history suggests he may not be a long-term solution. If he signs a 10-year deal, he'll likely spend half of it as a designated hitter, similar to Juan Soto in New York. This highlights the pressure of signing a high-profile player to a long-term deal.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of a long-term deal, I suggest offering Tucker a Cody Bellinger-type contract: three years at a high AAV with two opt-outs. This allows him to secure a long-term deal after 2026 if he excels. The Cubs could benefit from a strong 2026 season and then make a more significant investment.
Bringing Back Kyle Schwarber
If the Cubs are serious about spending, they should prioritize re-signing Kyle Schwarber. As a full-time designated hitter, Schwarber could remain productive into his late 30s. Seiya Suzuki could return to right field, where he performed well while Tucker was the DH. This move would be popular with fans and address a past mistake.
The Power of a Winning Product
Hoyer's press conference revealed the impact of a winning team on fan engagement. The Cubs' playoff crowds were impressive, with an average attendance of 37,259 at Wrigley Field, the highest since 2019. A winning product attracts fans and creates a memorable experience.
Hoyer noted the players' enthusiasm for the atmosphere, emphasizing the importance of a strong team on the field. Spending is necessary to win, and the Cubs should aim to build a championship-caliber roster.
Conclusion
The Cubs should spend wisely, focusing on players who can contribute to a winning team. While Kyle Tucker is an excellent player, his injury history and defensive concerns make him a risky long-term investment. Bringing back Kyle Schwarber and making strategic signings could be more beneficial in the long run.
